ES Futures Morning Brief · Tuesday, October 13, 2026 · ESZ6 · times PT

NY opened 7.75 pts below the prior NY close (pNY.C 7,856.75), inside every reference range — Mark's choppy template, with CPI tomorrow at 5:30 AM PT.

NY.O7,849.00

versus pNY.C-7.75

pNY range23.75

O/N range28.00

Next big eventCPI Wed 5:30 AM

01Key levels

Level	Price	Time (PT)	Window / note
NY.O (today)	7,849.00	6:30 AM Tue	Open of the 6:30 AM PT 1-min candle
pNY.H	7,870.00	6:30 AM Mon	Mon Oct 12, candles 6:30 AM–12:59 PM PT (390 bars). pNY.C = close of the 12:59 PM candle (1:00 PM PT)
pNY.L	7,846.25	11:51 AM Mon
pNY.C (prior NY close)	7,856.75	1:00 PM Mon
Prior settle (2:00 PM PT, Yahoo)	7,858.00	2:00 PM Mon	Not the NY close: Yahoo `previousClose`, +1.25 versus pNY.C 7,856.75. All "prior close" comparisons in this brief use pNY.C.
Asia H	7,862.25	3:25 PM Mon	Mon 3:00 PM–11:59 PM PT (526 bars)
Asia L	7,836.00	7:44 PM Mon	Mon 3:00 PM–11:59 PM PT (526 bars)
London H	7,864.00	3:13 AM Tue	Tue 12:00 AM–6:29 AM PT (390 bars)
London L	7,845.50	4:04 AM Tue	Tue 12:00 AM–6:29 AM PT (390 bars)
Overnight H / L	7,864.00 / 7,836.00	3:13 AM Tue / 7:44 PM Mon	Combined Asia + London extremes

Source: Yahoo Finance ES=F 1-minute bars (E-Mini S&P 500 Dec 26 = ESZ6), pulled Tue Oct 13, 2026, 10:28 AM PT. The free feed can differ from your charting platform by 1 tick (0.25) on some highs/lows; all values here are computed from the Yahoo bars. Asia window is missing 14 one-minute bars in Yahoo's data (8:59 PM–9:08 PM and 10:40 PM–10:43 PM PT), so a print in those minutes would not be reflected.

02Open positioning

Reference range	Low – High	Width	NY.O 7,849.00 sits…
Prior NY close (pNY.C, 1:00 PM PT)	7,856.75	—	BELOW -7.75 pts (down)
Prior NY (Mon 6:30 AM–1:00 PM PT)	7,846.25 – 7,870.00	23.75	INSIDE lower third (12% of range; 2.75 above low, 21.00 below high)
Asia (Mon 3:00–11:59 PM PT)	7,836.00 – 7,862.25	26.25	INSIDE middle third (50% of range; 13.00 above low, 13.25 below high)
London (Tue 12:00–6:29 AM PT)	7,845.50 – 7,864.00	18.50	INSIDE lower third (19% of range; 3.50 above low, 15.00 below high)
Overnight combined (Asia+London)	7,836.00 – 7,864.00	28.00	INSIDE middle third (46% of range; 13.00 above low, 15.00 below high)

Read: NY.O is inside the prior NY range (lower third, 2.75 pts above pNY.L) and inside the overnight range (middle third of the combined Asia+London range; lower third of London's range), and 7.75 pts below pNY.C. Under your framework that is the "inside both" case → expect a choppy, two-sided session, reinforced by heavy event risk: bank/health-care earnings already out, Fed's Barkin at 10:00 AM and Collins at 1:00 PM PT, and September CPI tomorrow at 5:30 AM PT. Neither the "open above → lean bullish" nor "open below → lean bearish" condition applies. Descriptive read only, not a trade recommendation.

Thirds measured as (NY.O − range low) ÷ range width. Open was 13.00 pts above the overnight low and 15.00 below the overnight high.

03ES versus prior NY close, prior settle & overnight summary

Versus prior NY close (pNY.C 7,856.75, 1:00 PM PT): NY.O 7,849.00 was -7.75 pts.
Versus prior settle (2:00 PM PT, Yahoo) 7,858.00: NY.O was -9.00 pts. The settle is a separate reference, not the NY close.
Overnight shape (Yahoo 1m): Asia printed its high 7,862.25 early (3:25 PM Mon), slid to the session low 7,836.00 at 7:44 PM PT (below pNY.L 7,846.25) during the Kospi chip selloff, and recovered to 7,853.25 by midnight. London traded 7,845.50–7,864.00, peaking at 3:13 AM PT and closing the window at 7,849.00. Overnight range 28.00 pts; neither session reached pNY.H 7,870.00.
Pre-open context: at 4:45 AM PT S&P futures were −0.11%, Nasdaq-100 −0.66%, Dow +0.17% (Sharecast); Nasdaq weakness tied to the CXMT-driven Asian chip selloff (Dow Jones via Morningstar).
Since the open (as of 10:13 AM PT, for context): RTH high 7,863.25 at 6:41 AM, low 7,834.50 at 8:35 AM — price slipped below pNY.L at 7:34 AM and below the overnight low at 8:29 AM PT before rotating back; last 7,847.50.

04Overnight movers

Asia (closes Tue)

Kospi	6,035.35	−5.46%
Nikkei 225	67,777.52	−1.82%
Taiex	48,341.31	−2.0%
Hang Seng	24,345.22	+0.30%
Shanghai CSI	4,275.68	−0.3%
ASX 200	8,783.90	+0.01%

Memory-chip selloff on CXMT DRAM-progress news; Kospi hit 5,911 intraday and triggered a sell-side sidecar. Yonhap Infomax, Yonhap (Kospi), Baystreet.

Europe (closes Tue)

Stoxx 600	635.01	−0.10%
DAX	25,251.15	−0.10%
CAC 40	7,827.63	−0.1%
FTSE 100	10,650.33	−0.1%

Europe hit a one-week high in the morning on lower oil/yields, then faded on tech (FTSE traded as high as 10,762.01). Sharecast, Independent, Dow Jones/Morningstar.

Rates, dollar, crude

Market	Latest	Chg	Note
US 10-yr yield	5.223%	−2.1 bp	10:23 AM PT; day low 5.173%. Fell ~5.5 bp early as cash Treasuries reopened after Columbus Day; last week's 24-yr high 5.365%. CNBC, CNBC
US 2-yr yield	4.81%	+1.9 bp	10:21 AM PT; ~4.77% early (CNBC). Curve flattening into CPI.
DXY	102.265	−0.32%	10:24 AM PT; off Monday's 18-month high 102.61. CNBC, FXStreet
WTI (Nov)	$94.34	+0.6%	Yahoo CL=F 10:15 AM PT versus 93.74 prior; reversed from ~$92.34 (−1.5%) early on Russian-diesel supply hopes. Yahoo, CNBC
Brent	$106.01	−0.6%	Yahoo BZ=F 10:15 AM PT versus 106.65 prior. Yahoo

Rate "Chg" colors: green = yield down. Percent/bp changes are versus each provider's previous-session value.

Earnings

Goldman Sachs (pre-mkt): EPS $17.01 versus $13.65 est., revenue $18.68B versus $17.03B; equities revenue +72% to $6.44B. Shares up ~1–3% early. 24/7 Wall St
JPMorgan (pre-mkt): net income $15.3B, EPS $5.57 ($5.75 ex-securities losses) on $50.9B revenue versus $5.93 est. (Dow Jones). Initially fell >3%, then roughly flat to +1–2% after NII guidance. JPM release, CNBC
Wells Fargo (pre-mkt): EPS $1.87, revenue $21.87B (missed); shares ~−3%. WFC release, 24/7 Wall St
Citigroup (pre-mkt): net income $5.2B, EPS $2.85 versus $2.65 est., revenue $23.8B; shares modestly lower early. Citi release
Johnson & Johnson (pre-mkt): sales $25.4B (+5.9%), adj. EPS $2.59, raised 2026 guidance — yet shares −5.4% (8:00 AM PT, Benzinga) to about −6% (Motley Fool, which describes an adjusted-earnings miss; sources differ on the estimate). J&J release, Benzinga, Motley Fool
UnitedHealth (pre-mkt): beat and raised guidance; up ~3% early, later "slightly down" per Motley Fool midday. Motley Fool
Also pre-mkt: Domino's (diluted EPS $4.60 versus $4.38 est.), Albertsons, FB Financial. DPZ 8-K, Dow Jones
After the close: AZZ, First Industrial Realty (FR), Karooooo (KARO) — no major index-moving names found. Earnings Whispers, Digrin

05US economic calendar (PT)

3:00 AM	NFIB Small Business Optimism (Sep): 97.9, −0.8 pt. NFIB
5:15 AM	ADP weekly employment (Finobird)
5:55 AM	Redbook weekly retail sales
7:00 AM	Existing home sales (Sep): 3.99M SAAR, +1.5% m/m; Aug revised to 3.93M; median price $417,500. Inman/NAR
11:00 AM	Monthly Treasury Statement (Sep)
Wed 5:30 AM	September CPI — consensus headline 3.7% y/y (Aug 3.4%) per CNBC

Times converted from GMT in the Dow Jones calendar. Consensus for existing home sales and the Treasury statement not verified.

06Fed speakers (PT)

12:45 AM	Gov. Waller, Bloomberg New Economy Forum: higher long yields reflect growth/fiscal factors, not inflation, and are "doing a little bit of the work" of tightening. Investing.com
10:00 AM	Richmond Fed's Barkin, fireside chat at Howard University; no text, Q&A. Forex Factory
1:00 PM	Boston Fed's Collins, Regional & Community Bankers conference; text and Q&A. Finobird
n/a	Chicago Fed's Goolsbee appears on ITC's day list; no time confirmed. His Semafor interview (published Mon) said AI is an inflation problem. Semafor

07Sector performance & ES

Sector (SPDR ETF)	Today (as of 10:24 AM PT)	Mon Oct 12 close
Energy XLE	+1.20%	+1.43%
Communication Svcs XLC	+0.85%	+0.97%
Materials XLB	+0.31%	+0.02%
Utilities XLU	+0.22%	+0.53%
Cons. Discretionary XLY	+0.10%	-0.51%
Real Estate XLRE	-0.04%	+0.75%
Financials XLF	-0.05%	+0.58%
Cons. Staples XLP	-0.16%	+1.17%
Technology XLK	-0.49%	-1.22%
Industrials XLI	-0.82%	-0.06%
Health Care XLV	-1.24%	+0.69%
S&P 500 (SPY)	-0.11%	-0.06%

Leaders: Energy (crude bounce; CVX/COP/XOM +1.2–1.5%) and Communication Services (META +3.3%) led both Monday and today. Benzinga
Laggards: Health Care (J&J −5%+), Industrials (CAT −3.6%, RTX −2.6%) and Technology (semis; SOX −1.5% by 9:14 AM PT, Micron −5%+). Benzinga, Motley Fool
How it relates to ES: Tech is the largest S&P weight, so the chip selloff is the main drag; Energy and Comm Services strength offsets it. Net result is an index near unchanged (SPY -0.11%, S&P 500 cash 7,798.67 per Yahoo), which matches ES holding inside Monday's range. Monday was the same pattern: 8 of 11 sectors up while Tech fell 1.2% and the S&P closed -0.06% at 7,807.24 (Motley Fool).

Sector % changes computed from Yahoo Finance daily data for the 11 SPDR sector ETFs (today versus Mon close; Mon versus Fri close).