ES Futures Morning Brief · Friday, October 23, 2026 · times PT
NY Open
Below
Open 7,661.00 · prior close 7,706.50
Prior NY Range
Below
7,676.75 – 7,742.50
Overnight Range
Inside
7,660.00 – 7,714.25
Day type
Mixed
Level to level, wait for reaction
Major news
S&P 500 futures are down about 0.3% and Dow futures about 0.6% after Thursday’s AI-led tech selloff, while Brent crude trades near $114, its highest since May, on Middle East supply worries; no major US data before the open.
🎧 Listen to the brief
About 3 minutes. Levels are named only; prices are on this page.
Bars = session ranges. The overnight bar (Asia + London) marks the strongest draws; a session high or low taken out by a later session is not a level. Amber dotted = NY open; green dashed = prior NY close — magnets, not targets. Source: Yahoo ES=F 1-minute bars, Fri Oct 23, 2026, 6:32 AM PT.
02Today's plan
MIXED Mixed (below prior NY, inside overnight): level to level. Wait for price at the nearest level and react; holding below a level targets the next level down, holding above targets the next level up.
Level map
Level
Price
Versus open
pNY.H
7,742.50
+81.50
Asia H OVERNIGHT HIGH · STRONGEST DRAW
7,714.25
+53.25
London H WEAKER DRAW
7,712.25
+51.25
pNY.L
7,676.75
+15.75
London L OVERNIGHT LOW · STRONGEST DRAW
7,660.00
-1.00
Asia L
7,685.00
swept, not a level
Only these five levels are targets. The overnight high and low (the outer edge of Asia + London) carry the most weight; inner session levels are still valid but a weaker draw. Prior NY close and NY open are magnets on the chart, not targets. Duplicates within ~1 pt are collapsed. Asia L 7,685.00 was taken out by London L; not a level.
Setups to watch
Overnight-low sweep: If London L 7,660.00 (overnight low, strongest draw) is swept and reclaimed, then long toward London H 7,712.25 (passing prior NY low 7,676.75), then Asia H 7,714.25, the overnight high and strongest draw, or the high of day. If price breaks it and holds below, then open air (no mapped level). A break that retests London L 7,660.00 from below and holds is the short branch.
Below prior NY low: No longs unless pNY.L 7,676.75 is reclaimed. If reclaimed and held, then London H 7,712.25.
London high: If London H 7,712.25 gets a wick through that closes back under, or equal highs above, then short toward pNY.L 7,676.75. If it breaks and a retest holds, then long toward Asia H 7,714.25.
Touch types at any level: a near miss then reverse, an exact touch, or a sweep and reclaim.
Primary scenario: London L 7,660.00
At London L 7,660.00: reject and reverse, break through and continue, or go sideways then one of those two.
If price reaches London L 7,660.00 and rejects, the next level is pNY.L 7,676.75.
If price breaks London L 7,660.00 and holds, the next level is open air (no mapped level).
Sideways at the level is acceptance — wait for the break or the rejection; price action away from a key level is noise.
Secondary scenario: pNY.L 7,676.75
At pNY.L 7,676.75: reject and reverse, break through and continue, or go sideways then one of those two.
If price rallies into pNY.L 7,676.75 from below and holds as resistance, the next level is London L 7,660.00.
If it breaks and holds above pNY.L 7,676.75, the next level is London H 7,712.25.
Sideways at the level is acceptance — wait for the break or the rejection; price action away from a key level is noise.
Conditional plan from Mark's framework: if price reaches a key level and rejects or breaks, the next level is the target. Trade idea only — not an order, not certain, not advice.
03Rules reminder
Patience: map the levels, wait for price to get there — then act. Price action away from a key level is noise.
At a level, price rejects and reverses, breaks and continues, or goes sideways then does one of those two.
Structure over candles. Entry 1 tick past the signal candle; stop ~3–6 pts past the pivot; exit fully at T1 (next level of structure).
No trades before 7:00 AM PT. Inside both ranges (especially with news), wait for a range extreme.
Execution of the plan > P&L. Erase the previous day — reset and come back fresh.
04US calendar (PT)
Time
Event
Impact
Act
Fcst
Prev
6:45 AM
Flash Manufacturing PMI
MEDIUM
—
55.4
57.0
6:45 AM
Flash Services PMI
MEDIUM
—
57.9
58.7
7:00 AM
Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment
MEDIUM
—
46.3
46.3
7:00 AM
Revised UoM Inflation Expectations
MEDIUM
—
—
4.7%
Forex Factory (weekly export feed nfs.faireconomy.media; the forexfactory.com page returned 403 to automated fetch). High/medium listed first.
05Fed speakers (PT)
None listed.
Forex Factory. The Fed is in its pre-meeting quiet period through Oct 29. CME FedWatch-based pricing showed about a 91% chance of no change and a 9% chance of a quarter-point hike at the Oct 27–28 meeting (Investing.com Fed Rate Monitor).
Health Care +1.32% (+2.50 versus SPY): Health care gained 1.32%, part of the same defensive rotation; Johnson & Johnson rose 3.8%. The Closing Print (Thu close)
Real Estate +1.09% (+2.27 versus SPY): no specific cited catalyst.
Overnight: Asia was mixed and recovered from early losses: Hang Seng +0.7%, Shanghai +0.9%, Kospi +0.3%, Nikkei −0.3%; Taiwan closed for a typhoon. Europe is lower at midday (Stoxx 600 −0.6%, DAX −0.9%) on tech losses, Kering and French unrest. Yonhap Infomax, RTTNews via finanzen.ch, Investing.com (Europe)
Rates/FX/oil: 10-yr back near 5.00%, up about 4 bp after Thursday’s 16–17 bp drop; dollar index flat near 101.6; Brent near $114–115 and WTI near $101, the highest since May, on Middle East supply worries. CNBC (Treasurys), AP
Data: No US data before the open. Flash PMIs at 6:45 AM PT and revised consumer sentiment at 7:00 AM PT, both medium impact. (Forex Factory)
Fed: Quiet period through Oct 29; pricing shows about a 9% chance of a quarter-point hike on Oct 28 and 91% for no change. Investing.com Fed Rate Monitor
Thursday recap: S&P 500 −1.21% to 7,663.43, its worst day since July; Nasdaq −2.60% to 26,008.86; Dow +0.02% to 52,867.98. Staples, utilities and health care rose while technology fell 3.3%. AP (Thu close), The Closing Print (Thu close)
Earnings: Western Digital, Deckers, Bloom Energy and Comfort Systems are lower premarket after reports; telecoms fall on a SpaceX tower-lease report. Microsoft, Amazon and Alphabet report next week. CNBC premarket movers, RTTNews via finanzen.ch