01Session map

Bars = session ranges. The overnight bar (Asia + London) marks the strongest draws; a session high or low taken out by a later session is not a level. Amber dotted = NY open; green dashed = prior NY close — magnets, not targets. Source: Yahoo ES=F 1-minute bars, Thu Oct 22, 2026, 6:32 AM PT.

02Today's plan

MIXED Mixed (below prior NY, inside overnight): level to level. Wait for price at the nearest level and react; holding below a level targets the next level down, holding above targets the next level up.

Level map

Only these five levels are targets. The overnight high and low (the outer edge of Asia + London) carry the most weight; inner session levels are still valid but a weaker draw. Prior NY close and NY open are magnets on the chart, not targets. Duplicates within ~1 pt are collapsed. Asia L 7,728.25 was taken out by London L; not a level.

Setups to watch

• London high: If London H 7,736.50 gets a wick through that closes back under, or equal highs above, then short toward London L 7,710.25. If it breaks and a retest holds, then long toward pNY.L 7,751.00.
• Overnight-low sweep: If London L 7,710.25 (overnight low, strongest draw) is swept and reclaimed, then long toward London H 7,736.50, then Asia H 7,798.75 (passing prior NY low 7,751.00), the overnight high and strongest draw, or the high of day. If price breaks it and holds below, then open air (no mapped level). A break that retests London L 7,710.25 from below and holds is the short branch.
• Below prior NY low: No longs unless pNY.L 7,751.00 is reclaimed. If reclaimed and held, then Asia H 7,798.75.

Touch types at any level: a near miss then reverse, an exact touch, or a sweep and reclaim.

Primary scenario: London H 7,736.50

• At London H 7,736.50: reject and reverse, break through and continue, or go sideways then one of those two.
• If price reaches London H 7,736.50 and rejects, the next level is London L 7,710.25.
• If price breaks London H 7,736.50 and holds, the next level is pNY.L 7,751.00.
• Sideways at the level is acceptance — wait for the break or the rejection; price action away from a key level is noise.

Secondary scenario: London L 7,710.25

• At London L 7,710.25: reject and reverse, break through and continue, or go sideways then one of those two.
• If price reaches London L 7,710.25 and rejects, the next level is London H 7,736.50.
• If price breaks London L 7,710.25 and holds, the next level is open air (no mapped level).
• Sideways at the level is acceptance — wait for the break or the rejection; price action away from a key level is noise.

Timing

• No trades before 7:00 AM PT.
• 5:30 AM PT — Unemployment Claims 194K (medium impact, released)

Conditional plan from Mark's framework: if price reaches a key level and rejects or breaks, the next level is the target. Trade idea only — not an order, not certain, not advice.

03Rules reminder

• Patience: map the levels, wait for price to get there — then act. Price action away from a key level is noise.
• At a level, price rejects and reverses, breaks and continues, or goes sideways then does one of those two.
• Structure over candles. Entry 1 tick past the signal candle; stop ~3–6 pts past the pivot; exit fully at T1 (next level of structure).
• No trades before 7:00 AM PT. Inside both ranges (especially with news), wait for a range extreme.
• Execution of the plan > P&L. Erase the previous day — reset and come back fresh.

06Market context

• S&P 500 +0.53% (as of 6:09 AM PT).
• What the jobless claims report means: Weekly jobless claims count people filing for unemployment benefits for the first time, an early read on layoffs. A reading below forecast, like today’s 194,000 versus 200,000, says layoffs remain low and the job market is holding up, which gives the Fed less reason to cut and keeps a rate increase on the table while inflation is above target. On its own that tends to push Treasury yields and the dollar slightly higher, and higher yields weigh on stock valuations and ES. This is a weekly, medium-impact report, so its effect is usually small. Before the release, the 10-year yield was already down about 10 basis points near 5.04% and the dollar was flat near 101.8 as investors bought bonds for safety during the tech selloff and oil jump, so the claims number is a minor factor next to AI-stock and oil moves today. Labor Department, CNBC (Treasurys)
• Communication Svcs -1.11% (-1.63 versus SPY): Communication services fell 1.3%, the worst sector: AT&T sank 6.5% despite beating estimates on fears SpaceX could become a telecom rival, T-Mobile fell 2.5%, Verizon 2.2%, Netflix 5.3% on a weaker profit forecast and Alphabet 1.6%. Reuters via StreetInsider (Wed close), CNBC (Wed close)
• Real Estate -0.76% (-1.28 versus SPY): no specific cited catalyst.
• Cons. Staples -0.73% (-1.25 versus SPY): no specific cited catalyst.
• Technology +1.67% (+1.15 versus SPY): Technology led (+1.6%) after SpaceX and Super Micro results eased AI spending worries; the Philadelphia semiconductor index rose 2%, with AMD up more than 3% and Nvidia more than 2%. Reuters via StreetInsider (Wed close), CNBC (Wed close)
• Overnight: Asia sold off on AI spending worries: Kospi −3.5%, Hang Seng −3.0%, Nikkei −2.7%, Taiwan −1.8%. Europe is lower at midday (Stoxx 600 about −0.9%, CAC 40 −1.3%) on tech losses, higher oil and French 10-year yields at a 24-year high. InfoQuest, Baystreet, Sharecast (Europe midday)
• Rates/FX/oil: 10-yr near 5.04%, down about 10 bp as investors bought bonds for safety; dollar index flat near 101.8; Brent near $112 and WTI near $99.6, up about 3% on Houthi attacks on Saudi oil sites and a reported plan for renewed US-Israeli strikes on Iran. CNBC (Treasurys), AP, Sharecast (Europe midday)
• Data: Jobless claims 194,000 versus 200,000 expected (below forecast). Conference Board leading index 7:00 AM PT and natural gas storage 7:30 AM PT, both low impact. Labor Department
• Fed: Quiet period through Oct 29; futures price about a 12% chance of a quarter-point hike on Oct 28 and 88% for no change. CME FedWatch via SessionOpen
• Wednesday recap: S&P 500 +0.58% to 7,757.17, Dow +0.69% to 52,856.09, Nasdaq +1.05% to 26,702.86; technology led while communication services fell 1.3%. Reuters via StreetInsider (Wed close), CNBC (Wed close)
• Earnings: Tesla is down about 3–5% premarket on lower spending and sales targets, and Meta 1–2% despite a revenue beat; chip stocks are down 2–5%. Investing.com premarket, Reuters via Investing.com