01Session map

Bars = session ranges. The overnight bar (Asia + London) marks the strongest draws; a session high or low taken out by a later session is not a level. Amber dotted = NY open; green dashed = prior NY close — magnets, not targets. Source: Yahoo ES=F 1-minute bars, Fri Oct 16, 2026, 6:31 AM PT.

02Today's plan

MIXED Mixed (above prior NY, inside overnight): level to level. Wait for price at the nearest level and react; holding below a level targets the next level down, holding above targets the next level up.

Level map

Only these five levels are targets. The overnight high and low (the outer edge of Asia + London) carry the most weight; inner session levels are still valid but a weaker draw. Prior NY close and NY open are magnets on the chart, not targets. Duplicates within ~1 pt are collapsed. Asia H 7,808.00 was taken out by London H; not a level.

Setups to watch

• Above prior NY high: No shorts unless pNY.H 7,801.75 fails. If it fails and holds below, then London L 7,792.50.
• Overnight-high break: If London H 7,809.50 (overnight high, strongest draw) breaks and holds, then open air (no mapped level). If the break fails back under, it becomes a fade toward London L 7,792.50 (passing prior NY high 7,801.75), then Asia L 7,774.75, the overnight low and strongest draw. A wick through that closes back under, or equal highs within 1 tick above, is the short trigger.
• London low: If London L 7,792.50 gets a wick through that closes back above, or equal lows within 1 tick below, then long toward pNY.H 7,801.75. If it breaks and a retest holds from below, then short toward Asia L 7,774.75.

Touch types at any level: within 1 tick then reverse, an exact match, or a sweep and reclaim.

Primary scenario: pNY.H 7,801.75

• At pNY.H 7,801.75: reject and reverse, break through and continue, or go sideways then one of those two.
• If price reaches pNY.H 7,801.75 and rejects, the next level is London L 7,792.50.
• If price breaks pNY.H 7,801.75 and holds, the next level is London H 7,809.50.
• Sideways at the level is acceptance — wait for the break or the rejection; price action away from a key level is noise.

Secondary scenario: London H 7,809.50

• At London H 7,809.50: reject and reverse, break through and continue, or go sideways then one of those two.
• If price reaches London H 7,809.50 and rejects, the next level is pNY.H 7,801.75.
• If price breaks London H 7,809.50 and holds, the next level is open air (no mapped level).
• Sideways at the level is acceptance — wait for the break or the rejection; price action away from a key level is noise.

Timing

• No trades before 7:00 AM PT.
• No high/medium-impact USD events left today.

Conditional plan from Mark's framework: if price reaches a key level and rejects or breaks, the next level is the target. Trade idea only — not an order, not certain, not advice.

03Rules reminder

• Patience: map the levels, wait for price to get there — then act. Price action away from a key level is noise.
• At a level, price rejects and reverses, breaks and continues, or goes sideways then does one of those two.
• Structure over candles. Entry 1 tick past the signal candle; stop ~3–6 pts past the pivot; exit fully at T1 (next level of structure).
• No trades before 7:00 AM PT. Inside both ranges (especially with news), wait for a range extreme.
• Execution of the plan > P&L. Erase the previous day — reset and come back fresh.

06Market context

• S&P 500 +0.28% (as of 6:10 AM PT).
• Energy -1.58% (-1.87 versus SPY): Energy fell as oil traders weighed a possible easing of US sanctions on shadow-fleet tankers against Strait of Hormuz attack risk. TipRanks, etf.net
• Health Care +1.86% (+1.57 versus SPY): Healthcare led as money rotated out of AI and chip stocks into defensives; Eli Lilly +3.5%, UnitedHealth +2.8%. etf.net, TipRanks
• Materials +1.79% (+1.51 versus SPY): Materials were part of the rotation out of AI and chips into the rest of the market; equal-weight S&P +1.4%. Saxo, etf.net
• Cons. Discretionary +1.71% (+1.43 versus SPY): Consumer discretionary rose with retail stocks; Home Depot +4.3%, Nike +5.2%. etf.net, Saxo
• Overnight: Asia rebounded after Thursday’s chip selloff (Kospi +2.1%, Nikkei +1.4%), though Indonesia fell about 10% on an MSCI downgrade warning; Europe is higher (Stoxx 600 +0.6%, DAX about +1%). AFP, RTHK, Reuters via Euronext
• Rates/FX/oil: 10-yr near 5.07–5.11%, roughly flat after Thursday’s 9 bp drop; dollar about −0.2% and headed for a weekly loss; WTI down about 1–2% near $96 and Brent near $105. Bloomberg via swissinfo, Reuters via Euronext, CNBC (oil)
• Fed: Warsh gave no signal on October and said the economy has matched the Fed’s expectations; markets lean toward a hold on Oct 28. Axios
• Earnings: Travelers beat but fell about 4% premarket; Truist, M&T and Regions beat; Tesla up about 4–5% premarket on its Roadster unveiling; CoreWeave down about 4%. CNBC premarket movers, StreetInsider earnings, Reuters via Investing.com