01Session map

Bars = session highs/lows (the only key levels). Amber dotted = NY open; green dashed = prior NY close — magnets, not targets. Source: Yahoo ES=F 1-minute bars, Thu Oct 15, 2026, 8:58 AM PT.

02Today's plan

MIXED Mixed (below prior NY, inside overnight): level to level. Wait for price at the nearest level and react; holding below a level targets the next level down, holding above targets the next level up.

Level map

Only these six levels are targets. Prior NY close and NY open are magnets on the chart, not targets. Duplicates within ~1 pt are collapsed.

Setups to watch

• Below prior NY low: No longs unless pNY.L 7,741.00 is reclaimed. If reclaimed and held, then London H 7,755.75.
• Overnight-low sweep: If London L = Asia L 7,728.75 (overnight low) is swept and reclaimed, then long toward pNY.L 7,741.00, then Asia H 7,769.50 (opposite overnight extreme) or the high of day. If price breaks it and holds below, then open air (no mapped level). A break that retests London L = Asia L 7,728.75 from below and holds is the short branch.
• London high: If London H 7,755.75 gets a wick through that closes back under, or equal highs within 1 tick above, then short toward pNY.L 7,741.00. If it breaks and a retest holds, then long toward Asia H 7,769.50.

Touch types at any level: within 1 tick then reverse, an exact match, or a sweep and reclaim.

Primary scenario: pNY.L 7,741.00

• At pNY.L 7,741.00: reject and reverse, break through and continue, or go sideways then one of those two.
• If price reaches pNY.L 7,741.00 and rejects, the next level is London L = Asia L 7,728.75.
• If price breaks pNY.L 7,741.00 and holds, the next level is London H 7,755.75.
• Sideways at the level is acceptance — wait for the break or the rejection; price action away from a key level is noise.

Secondary scenario: London L = Asia L 7,728.75

• At London L = Asia L 7,728.75: reject and reverse, break through and continue, or go sideways then one of those two.
• If price reaches London L = Asia L 7,728.75 and rejects, the next level is pNY.L 7,741.00.
• If price breaks London L = Asia L 7,728.75 and holds, the next level is open air (no mapped level).
• Sideways at the level is acceptance — wait for the break or the rejection; price action away from a key level is noise.

Timing

• No trades before 7:00 AM PT.
• 5:30 AM PT — Core PPI m/m 0.7%, Core Retail Sales m/m 0.9%, PPI m/m 1.3%, Retail Sales m/m 0.8% (high impact, released)
• 5:30 AM PT — Philly Fed Manufacturing Index 20.9, Unemployment Claims 199K (medium impact, released)

Conditional plan from Mark's framework: if price reaches a key level and rejects or breaks, the next level is the target. Trade idea only — not an order, not certain, not advice.

03Rules reminder

• Patience: map the levels, wait for price to get there — then act. Price action away from a key level is noise.
• At a level, price rejects and reverses, breaks and continues, or goes sideways then does one of those two.
• Structure over candles. Entry 1 tick past the signal candle; stop ~3–6 pts past the pivot; exit fully at T1 (next level of structure).
• No trades before 7:00 AM PT. Inside both ranges (especially with news), wait for a range extreme.
• Execution of the plan > P&L. Erase the previous day — reset and come back fresh.

06Market context

• S&P 500 -1.08% (as of 6:05 AM PT).
• What the inflation surprise means: PPI tracks the prices businesses get for what they sell, and it often feeds into consumer prices later. A reading above forecast, like this one and yesterday's CPI, means inflation is running faster than the market priced in, so the Fed is less likely to cut and may keep rates high for longer. That tends to push Treasury yields up, because bond buyers demand more for holding debt, and higher yields pull money away from stocks and make future profits worth less today, which hits growth and tech names hardest. Higher US rates also tend to lift the dollar, and a stronger dollar squeezes the overseas earnings of big US companies. Together that usually weighs on ES. Today the usual pattern is muddied: overnight the 10-year yield was down about 9 bp near 5.09% and the dollar softer because investors ran to bonds from the AI and chip selloff, so watch whether yields turn up after the PPI and retail sales data. CNBC
• Health Care +2.53% (+3.62 versus SPY): Defensive bid as tech sold; healthcare led sector gains Wednesday while Nasdaq fell ~1.9%. Bloomberg via swissinfo, Euronews
• Cons. Staples +2.22% (+3.30 versus SPY): Staples outperformed in the risk-off rotation out of AI/semiconductors after hotter CPI. Bloomberg via swissinfo, Newsquawk
• Technology -2.98% (-1.90 versus SPY): AI/chip selloff deepened after hot CPI; CoreWeave credit stress; Asia tech plunged overnight (Kospi −7.7%, Nikkei −4.8%). Bloomberg via swissinfo, Euronews, Newsquawk
• Energy +0.64% (+1.72 versus SPY): Crude stayed elevated into Wednesday on Middle East supply risk before an overnight pullback. Newsquawk, Bloomberg via swissinfo
• Overnight: Asia sold hard on the AI/chip rout (Kospi −7.7% with circuit breakers, Nikkei −4.8%); Europe opened mixed-to-soft (DAX soft, CAC firmer). Euronews, Newsquawk
• Rates/FX/oil: 10-yr ~5.09% (−~9 bp) and dollar softer as bonds caught a flight-to-quality bid; Brent slipped below $105 / WTI pulled back overnight. Bloomberg via swissinfo, Newsquawk
• Earnings: PNC beat EPS but missed revenue/NII; Schwab hit record revenue and NNA; BNY EPS +24% y/y. PNC IR, Schwab press, BNY 3Q26